NCAA Tourny Bracket Busters?

Who will be this years bracket buster-Cinderella story? After examining the 2006 NCAA Tournament field, I have found my most likely candidates. Usually, it is a safe bet that a 12 seed will upset a 5, but in this years tournament field the more likely upset pick seems to be a 13 over a 4. The only 12 that has a chance to knock off a 5 is Texas A&M because of Syracuses lack of depth and reliance on Gerry McNamara to do everything. If he has an off game the Orange could go down, but I think theyll ride their Big East Conference Tournament high out of the first round.

Staying in the Atlantic, 13 seed Iona is a likely candidate to knock LSU out of the tournament. Iona is comfortable on the road, largely because they are an experienced team returning 4 starters, and their 15-3 road mark this season proves it. A win for Iona would prove on the grand stage that smaller conference schools are catching up to the Majors, which seems to be more and more apparent each season. It would also prove that the SEC was the weakest Major conference in the country this season. If Iona gets past LSU, theyll have a great chance to make the Sweet 16 with a win over Syracuse.

Another 13 seed that has enjoyed some tournament success the last couple years is the University of the Pacific. Coach Bob Thomasons squad will be up against one of the hottest teams in the country in Boston College, but I dont expect them to go away easy. This could be the biggest first round shocker as Pacific has been great away from Stockton, posting a 12-4 record, and they are coming in to their first round matchup winners of 12 of their last 13. This may not be the highest percentage play as Boston College is a Final Four-caliber team. But Pacifics bigs have the ability to step away from the basket and will pose matchup problems for the Eagles. The Tigers could be a huge bracket buster in 2006 as some have the Eagles coming out of the Minneapolis region.

Last years story was the 7 seed West Virginia Mountaineers making it to the Elite 8 before falling to Louisville, and it may very well be again this season. Although they arent the Cinderella team they were last year, they did slide to a 6 seed due to some late conference losses after starting Big East play red hot. Pittsnoggles ability to play both outside and inside with his 611 frame is one of the toughest matchups for any team in the tournament. Gansey can do it all and proved that he rises to the occasion in big games in last years tournament run. Iowa is a solid team that West Virginia will have to deal with in the second round, but Iowas 7-foot Big 10 Defensive player of the year, Erik Hansen, wont be able to defend Pittsnoggle 20 feet from the basket. The Hawkeyes may have to guard him with Greg Brunner who will be giving up 4 inches. Because of matchup problems, the Hawkeyes may be forced to play zone, which could welcome an onslaught of 3 pointers from the Mountaineers, which is what they do best. Texas will be West Virginias likely third round opponent if they make it past Iowa. They are big, talented, and athletic, but susceptible.

They were blown out by Oklahoma State, lost to 12 seed Texas A&M, and Kansas beat them by double figures in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship game. Duke will likely be West Virginias Elite 8 matchup if the Mountaineers can make it back there again this season. As the season has unfolded both of these teams have looked more and more human. It could be costly for the Blue Devils to have to play 2 freshman a lot of minutes. Point guard Greg Paulus will have the wait of the world on his shoulders trying to manage the top seed Blue Devils as just a freshman. I like West Virginias chances against both of these teams because of their experience in the NCAA tournament last season and their preparation from playing in the nations Elite basketball conference this year.

Be sure to take these things into consideration when filling out your 2006 Tournament bracket.

Jimmy Boyd is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jimmy_Boyd.htm

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